MANKATO, Minn. — As expected, the USDA World Supply and Demand (WASDE) Report released on July 12 included an increase in the projected 2024 corn production, based on the increase in the estimated 2024 U.S. corn acreage that was in the June 28 USDA Crop Acreage Report. However, this production increase was basically offset by reductions in the expected corn carryout levels for the 2023-24 marketing year. Both the projected 2023-24 and 2024-25 corn ending stocks were below the pre-report estimates by most grain marketing analysts. Corn and soybean prices were mixed following the release of the WASDE report on July 12, with corn futures prices on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) slightly higher and soybean prices showing very little change. By Monday, July 15, favorable weather across much of the Corn Belt and sluggish demand dominated the marketing news, resulting in both corn and soybean futures prices being down significantly.
Following are some highlights from the July 12 WASDE Report:
Corn
The biggest surprise in the July 12th WASDE report was the unexpected reduction in the 2023-24 corn ending stocks on August 31, 2024, which USDA is now projecting at 1.877 billion bushels. This is a decrease of 145 million bushels from the projected carryover level in the mid-June WASDE report and is 172 million bushels below the pre-report average estimate from grain traders. The estimated corn ending stocks for 2024-25 in the July WASDE report was 2.097 billion bushels, which was nearly the same June estimate, but was 215 million bushels lower than average estimates from the grain trading industry. Most of the decline for 2024-25 was due to lower beginning stocks that resulted from the projected decline in 2023-24 carryout levels. Much of this decline was offset by projected increases in 2024 U.S. corn acreage and production for the current crop year, as compared to previous estimates in the June WASDE report.
The July 12th WASDE report used estimated planted U.S. corn acreage of 91.5 million acres, which matches the projected corn acreage in the June 28th USDA Crop Acreage Report. This was an increase of 1.5 million corn acres from the last WASDE report in mid-June. USDA also increased the projected harvested acres of corn for grain in the July report to 83.4 million acres, compared to 83.1 million acres in the June report. USDA left the estimated 2024 U.S. corn yield at 181 bushels per acre, which is unchanged from the June report and would be a record U.S. corn yield. The current record U.S. corn yield is 177.3 bushels per acre, which was set in 2023. The added corn acreage together with the projected record corn yield increased the estimated 2024 corn production to 15.1 billion bushels, which was up by 240 million bushels from the June report. The projected 2024 total U.S. corn production is slightly lower than the 15.34 billion bushels of production in 2023; however, it would be well above the final U.S. corn production level of 13.65 billion bushels in 2022.
The total corn usage for 2023-24 is estimated at just over 14.85 billion bushels, which would be an increase of approximately 1.15 billion bushels from the total corn usage for 2022-23. Corn export levels for the 2023-24 marketing year are expected to be up by 563 million bushels from a year earlier, which adds to the expected increases of 289 million bushels in corn used for feed and 274 million bushels in corn used for ethanol production, compared to a year earlier. Total U.S. corn usage for 2024-25 is projected at just over 14.9 billion bushels, with most usage categories very similar to the current projected usage levels in 2023-24.
USDA is now projecting 2023-24 market year average (MYA) corn price at $4.65 per bushel, which is the same as the June WASDE report. USDA is estimating the 2024-25 MYA corn price at $4.30 per bushel, which was lowered by $.10 per bushel from the June WASDE report. The 2023-24 marketing year ends on August 31, 2024 and the marketing year for the 2024 crop year will run from September 1, 2024 through August 31, 2025. The current price projections compare to recent corn MYA prices of $6.54 per bushel in 2022-23, $6.00 per bushel in 2021-22, $4.53 per bushel in 2020-21, and $3.56 per bushel in 2019-20.
Soybeans
Based on the July 12th WASDE report, USDA is now estimating 2024 U.S. planted soybean acreage at 86.1 million acres, which was a slight decrease from the June estimate and compares to 83.6 million acres in 2023. The record national soybean acreage was 89.2 million acres in 2018. The July 12th report projected a U.S. average soybean yield of 52 bushels per acre in 2022, which was unchanged from the June report and compares to a final national yield of 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023. Total U.S soybean production for 2024 is now estimated at just over 4.43 billion bushels, which would be an increase from the U.S. soybean production of 4.16 billion bushels in 2023, but is still below the record U.S. soybean production of 4.54 billion bushels in 2018.
USDA is projecting total soybean usage for 2023-24 at just over 4.1 billion bushels, which is slightly below the 4.3 billion bushels of usage in 2022-23. The projected soybean usage for the current marketing year includes a slight increase in expected soybean crush levels; however that is more than offset by an expected decline of 280 million bushels in the soybean export level. USDA is now estimating soybean ending stocks at the end of the 2023-24 marketing year that ends on August 31, 2024 to be at 345 million bushels, which would be an increase of 81 million bushels from the carryout level of 264 billion bushels in 2022-23. USDA is projecting soybean ending stocks to increase to 455 million bushels by the end of the 2024-25 marketing year on August 31, 2025, which would be at the highest level in recent years; however, the carryout level would still be well below the large soybean carryover levels from 2018-2020.
USDA is estimating the national MYA soybean price for the 2023-24 marketing year at $12.50 per bushel, which is a decrease of $.05 per bushel from the June report. The July WASDE report projected the farm-level average MYA soybean price for the 2024-25 marketing year is at $11.10 per bushel, which was lowered by $.20 per bushel from the June report. The current MYA soybean price projections compare to recent final MYA soybean prices of $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23; $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22, $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21, and $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20.
Wheat
Corn and soybeans usually gather the most interest and attention following the monthly WASDE reports; however, wheat has grabbed more attention in recent years due to some rather dramatic adjustments in the WASDE reports from month-to-month. Total U.S. wheat production for 2024 is estimated at just over two billion bushels, which would be up from just over 1.8 billion bushels in 2023 and 1.65 billion bushels in 2022. The estimated average U.S. wheat yield for 2024 was increased from 49.4 bushels per acre in the June report to 51.8 bushels per acre in the July report, which is a rather large month-to-month adjustment. Total U.S wheat production for 2024 is projected to increase by 10.8 percent from 2023 levels and to exceed 2022 U.S. production levels by 21.7 percent. The projected wheat usage levels for 2024-25 are projected at nearly 1.96 billion bushels, which would be an increase 141 million bushels from 2023-24 usage levels; however, that is not enough to offset the rather large increase in the expected wheat production this year.
The end result of the significant increases in the projected U.S. wheat production in 2024, with only modest gains in total wheat usage during the 2024-25 wheat marketing year, is a likely increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks by May 31, 2025. The 2024-25 USDA marketing year for wheat and other small grains runs from June 1, 2024 through May 31, 2025. The July WASDE report estimated the 2024-25 MYA wheat price at $5.70 per bushel, which was lowered by $.80 per bushel from the price estimate a month ago in the June report. This represents a very large month-to-month adjustment in the MYA price projection by USDA. The MYA wheat price estimate for the current year compares to recent final MYA wheat prices of $6.96 per bushel in 2023-24 and $8.83 per bushel in 2022-23.
— Kent Thiesse, Farm Management Analyst, Green Solutions
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