The USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report released on June 12 did not change estimated 2024 corn or soybean production levels and did not make any adjustments in the projected 2024-25 demand levels for either corn or soybeans.
The only change in the June WASDE report from the May monthly report was that 2023-24 soybean crush estimates were lowered by 10 million bushels and 2023-24 soybean carryout level was also increased by 10 million bushels. There were no adjustments to the 2022-23 corn usage or carryout levels.
Most grain marketing analysts viewed the June WASDE report as generally “neutral” for both the corn and soybean market; however, there is some uncertainty with both crops related to estimated 2024 production levels. The supply, production, ending stocks, and price projections in the WASDE report are for the 2023-24 and 2024-25 marketing years. The USDA marketing year for corn and soybeans for the 2023-24 began on Sept. 1, 2023, and ends on Aug. 31, 2024, and the 2024-25 marketing year ends begins on Sept. 1, 2024, and ends on Aug. 31, 2025. The 2023-24 marketing year USDA marketing year for wheat ended on May 31, 2024, and the 2024-25 marketing year extends from June 1, 2024, to May 31, 2025.
Following are some highlights of the June 12 th USDA WASDE Report:
USDA is projecting 2023-24 corn ending stocks at 2.022 billion bushels, which is the same as the May estimate.
The 2023-24 corn ending stocks estimate compares to 1.36 billion bushels in 2022-23, 1.38 billion bushels in 2021-22, 1.24 billion bushels in 2020-21, and 1.92 billion bushels in 2019-20. The projected corn supply for the balance of the 2023-24 marketing year remains quite large in many areas, which is could limit localized support for “old crop” corn prices this Summer. Farmers with some of last year’s corn still in storage will want to watch for rallies in local cash corn bids in the coming weeks to take advantage of the cash corn prices, as well as any short-term improvements in local corn basis levels.
Contributed
USDA kept the projected total estimated 2024 U.S. corn production at 14.86 billion bushels, which was the same as the May WASDE Report. The 2024 estimate compares to the record U.S. corn production level of 15.34 billion bushels in 2023 and other recent production levels of 13.73 billion bushels in 2022, 15.11 billion bushels in 2021, and 14.18 billion bushels in 2020. The projected average U.S. corn yield for 2024 in the June report is 181 bushels per acre, which is the same as the May estimate. The 2024 yield projection compares to other recent national average corn yields of 177.3 bushels per acre, which was a record yield, 173.3 bushels per acre in 2022, 177 bushels per acre in 2021, 172 bushels per acre in 2020, and 167.4 bushels per acre in 2019.
The WASDE report projects 2024 planted corn acres in the U.S at 90 million acres and harvested acres at 82.1 million acres. This compares to harvested acres of 86.5 million acres in 2023, 78.7 million acres in 2022, and 85.4 million acres in 2021. USDA is estimating total corn usage for the 2024-25 marketing year at just over 14.8 billion bushels, which is 100 million bushels above the projected corn usage levels for the 2023-24 marketing year, and compares to total corn usage of 13.7 billion bushels in 2022-23. Based on the projected U.S. corn acreage in 2024, as well as another record national average corn yield in 2024 and only a modest increase in estimated corn usage, USDA is projecting a slight increase in the corn ending stocks by the end of the 2024-25 marketing year on Aug. 31, 2025, compared to the current marketing year. The 2024-25 corn ending stocks are estimated at 2.102 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 80 million bushels from the estimated 2023-24 corn carryout projections. The projected large corn ending stocks may limit significant rallies in “new crop” corn prices, unless some weather issues develop with the 2024 corn crop.
The June 12 WASDE report estimated the average U.S “on-farm” corn price for the 2023-24 marketing year at $4.65 per bushel, which was the same as the May report. USDA also left the 2024-25 corn price estimate unchanged from the May estimate at $4.40 per bushel. The USDA corn price projections for 2023-24 and 2024-25 marketing years are considerably lower than the final national average corn prices of $5.54 per bushel in 2022-23, and $6 per bushel in 2021-22. The current corn price projections are more comparable to the final U.S. average corn price of $4.53 per bushel for 2020-21, but are still well above the final average prices of $3.56 per bushel in 2019-20 and $3.61 per bushel in 2018-19. Local cash prices in recent weeks across southern Minnesota for 2023 corn that is still in storage have been near $4.40 to $4.50 per bushel at many locations.
“New crop” corn bids for Fall delivery in 2024 slightly lower than current cash bids at most grain elevators and ethanol plants.
Based on the June 12 WASDE Report, the projected soybean ending stocks for 2023-24 were adjusted 350 million bushels, which was an increase of 10 million bushels from the May report due to the decrease in the soybean crush levels for 2023-24. The estimated 2023-24 soybean ending stocks compare to carryover levels of 264 million bushels in 2022-23, 274 million bushels in 2021-22, 256 million bushels in 2020-21, and 525 million bushels in 2019-20. The preliminary soybean ending stocks for 2024-25 are estimated at 455 million bushels, which is an increase of 30% or 105 million bushels from the anticipated 2023-24 carryout levels.
USDA did project total soybean usage for 2024-25 at 4.36 billion bushels, which would be an increase of 256 million bushels compared to estimated final 2023-24 soybean usage levels.
USDA is estimating the 2024 planted soybean acres at 86.5 million acres and the projected U.S. average soybean yield at 52 bushels per acre, which compares to 83.6 million planted acres and a final national average yield of 50.6 bushels per acre in 2023. Some crop experts feel that U.S. soybean acreage could be adjusted in the June 30 USDA Crop Acreage Report, due to the late and prevented planting in some areas of the northern Corn Belt. Marketing analysts will also be keeping a close eye on the national average soybean yield, which could be highly variable in future months, depending on growing season weather patterns across U.S. soybean production areas.
The June 12 WASDE report listed the projected average U.S “on-farm” soybean price for the 2024-25 marketing at $11.20 per bushel, which is the same as the May estimate. USDA is anticipating the average soybean price for the 2023-24 marketing year, which ends on Aug. 31, 2024, at $12.55 per bushel. The latest USDA soybean price projection for 2024-25 would be well below the projected final 2023-24 national average price and would also trail the final average prices of $14.20 per bushel in 2022-23 and $13.30 per bushel in 2021-22. However, the projected 2024-25 soybean price would still be above other recent average soybean prices of $10.80 per bushel in 2020-21 and $8.57 per bushel for 2019-20. There has not been much movement in cash soybean prices across southern Minnesota in recent weeks, with prices trading near $11.50 to $12 per bushel at processing plants. Basis levels have remained fairly tight due to limited local supplies of soybeans in some areas. Contract prices for fall delivery of the 2024 soybean crop in southern Minnesota have been near $10.50 to $11 per bushel.
USDA made no changes in the final 2023-24 wheat demand or carryout numbers in the latest WASDE report.
The wheat ending stocks for 2023-24 are projected at 688 million bushels and the 2023-24 farm level price is estimated at $7 per bushel. USDA is projecting total 2024 wheat acres at 47.5 million acres and a 2024 U.S. average wheat yield of 49.4 bushels per acre, resulting in a total production level of 1.875 billion bushels.
Kent Thiesse is a Farm Management Analyst and writes the weekly “Focus on Ag” column. Contact him by phone at (507) 381-7960 or by email at kentthiesse@gmail.com.
