The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected a significant reduction in global cotton production. The forecast for the 2024-25 season has been lowered by 1.2 million bales, bringing the total to 116.4 million bales. Global ending stocks have also been revised down to 76.5 million bales, a decrease from the 77.6 million bales reported in August.
According to the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report of September 2024, the USDA has also reduced its estimate for global cotton consumption by approximately 460,000 bales for the current season. Key markets will see notable reductions: Vietnam’s consumption is down by 200,000 bales, and both Bangladesh and Turkiye will see decreases of 100,000 bales each.
World cotton production is lowered by about 1.2 million bales due to smaller crops in the United States, India, and Pakistan, which more than offset an increase in China’s production. Global trade is expected to decrease by approximately 550,000 bales as reduced imports from China, Vietnam, Turkiye, and Bangladesh offset a rise in imports by India.
The world cotton price, represented by the “A” Index, remains unchanged at 81.5 cents per pound. The global balance sheet for the 2023-24 season has been updated to reflect higher beginning stocks, increased mill use, and lower ending stocks.
In its September report, the USDA reduced its estimate for US cotton production by 600,000 bales, bringing the total to 14.5 million bales. US cotton ending stocks were also lowered by 500,000 bales, leaving them at 4 million bales.
The September National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) forecast for US production is 14.5 million bales, down about 600,000 bales from August, largely due to lower yields for upland cotton in the Southwest. The cotton yield forecast of 807 pounds per acre is 33 pounds lower than last month. With the reduced production for 2024-25, exports are projected to decrease by 200,000 bales to 11.8 million, and ending stocks are down by 500,000 bales to 4 million, or 29 per cent of projected use.
The season-average upland farm price for 2024-25 remains unchanged at 66 cents per pound. Revisions to the 2023-24 US cotton balance sheet include a 400,000-bale increase in beginning stocks and a similar reduction in unaccounted bales, based on revised data and methodologies.
Fibre2Fashion News Desk (KUL)
