As of week 31, the Canadian Grain Commission’s licensed exports for Canada’s all-wheat at 716,300 mt ahead of the steady pace needed to reach the current AAFC forecast of 23.450 mmt, while the USDA has compensated for this faster pace with a forecast for Canada’s all-wheat exports at 24 mmt.
The graphic highlights the long term trend of overall lower wheat exports from the U.S. and Canada combined, although Canada has fared better. U.S. forecast exports for 2023-24 are estimated 60% below the record exports reported in 1981-82, while Canada’s exports are down 9.2% from the record volume shipped in 2020-21.
The current USDA forecasts point to 43.323 mmt to be shipped out of Canada and the U.S. combined in 2023-24, down from the five-year average of 47.4 mmt, while compares to the 1987-88 record high of 66.7 mmt.
Cliff Jamieson can be reached at cliff.jamieson@dtn.com.
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