By Tom C. Doran
WASHINGTON — Boosts in export and ethanol estimates lowered corn ending stocks while the soybean balance sheet was unchanged in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s supply and demand estimates report Dec. 10.
Here are the details.
Corn: The 2024-2025 season-average project price to be received by producers was unchanged from last month at $4.10 per bushel.
• Corn used to produce ethanol was raised 50 million bushels to 5.5 billion, based on the most recent data from the grain crushings and coproducts production report and weekly ethanol production data as reported by the Energy Information Administration for the month of November. The data imply corn used for ethanol during the September to November quarter was the highest since 2017.
• Corn exports were hiked by 150 million bushels to 2.5 billion reflecting the pace of sales and shipments to date.
*With no other use changes, corn ending stocks were lowered by 200 million bushels to 1.7 billion.
• Foreign corn production was cut with declines for the EU, Mexico, and Indonesia partially offset by an increase for Ukraine.
• Lower EU corn production was reflected in reductions for Italy, Romania, Croatia and Austria that are partially offset by increases for Poland, Spain and France.
• Mexico corn production was reduced due to lower winter corn area expectations.
• Foreign corn ending stocks were lowered based on declines for China, the EU and Indonesia.
• Global corn stocks, at 296.4 million tons, are down 7.7 million from last month.
Soybeans: The new crop season-average price is forecast at $10.20 per bushel, 60 cents lower than last month.
• The soybean meal price forecast was reduced $20 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound.
• Soybean oil production was raised from last month on a higher extraction rate.
• With higher soybean oil supplies and strong export commitments to date, exports were increased by 500 million pounds to 1.1 billion.
• Food, feed, and other industrial use of soybean oil were reduced 200 million pounds, leaving soybean oil ending stocks down slightly and similar to the 2023-2024 marketing year.
• Global soybean production was hiked by 1.7 million tons to 427.1 million on higher area for Argentina and Bolivia, and higher yields for Canada.
• USDA increased export estimates for Canada and Bolivia on higher supplies, and imports were raised for Algeria and Zimbabwe. Global crush was raised 1 million tons to 41 million for Argentina, leading to higher exports of soybean meal and oil.
• Soybean meal imports were increased for the EU, Algeria, Iran and Venezuela.
• Global soybean oil exports were hiked by 0.6 million tons to 12.6 million on higher exports for Argentina, Brazil and the U.S.
• Global vegetable oil ending stocks were reduced to 27.9 million tons, down 2% from last month and 7% from 2023-2024.
Wheat: USDA left the season-average farm price at $5.60 per bushel.
• Imports were increased 5 million bushels to 125 million on a strong pace for hard red spring.
• USDA increased exports by 25 million bushels to 850 million. White wheat exports were increased 15 million bushels to 210 million, on stronger-than-expected sales and shipments to East Asian markets. Exports for soft red winter and hard red spring were both raised 5 million bushels.
• Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks were reduced by 20 million bushels to 795 million, still up 14% from last year.
• Global wheat supplies declined 0.6 million tons to just over 1.06 billion bushels, as larger beginning stocks are more than offset by lower global production.
• Production is forecast lower for the European Union, down 1.3 million tons to 121.3 million, on harvest data showing lower production for several member states.
• Brazil’s wheat crop is also forecast lower on updated harvest data.
• Global wheat trade is projected down 1 million tons to 213.7 million tons as reductions for EU and Russia exports more than offset higher U.S. and Ukraine exports.
• Wheat exports are forecast down 1 million tons to 47 million for Russia, despite a strong start to the marketing year, as the imposition of an export quota is expected to constrain exports for the remainder of the marketing year.
• Projected 2024-2025 global wheat ending stocks were raised 0.3 million tons to 257.9 million but are still the lowest since 2015-2016.
Corn (2024-2025 marketing year)
Total corn supply: 16.928 billion bushels
Exports: 2.475 billion bushels
Feed, residual use: 5.825 billion bushels
Food, seed, industrial use: 6.89 billion bushels
Ethanol and byproducts: 5.5 billion bushels
Ending U.S. corn stocks: 1.738 billion bushels
Soybeans (2024-2025 marketing year)
Total soybean supply: 4.818 billion bushels
Seed, residual: 113 million bushels
Exports: 1.825 billion bushels
Crushings: 2.410 billion bushels
Ending U.S. soybean stocks: 470 million bushels
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