Research from Poland finds the development of the country’s solar industry will likely result in stable economic stimulus over the next 15 years, supporting between 20,000 and 40,000 direct full time contracts until 2040 depending on the level of investment and operations and maintenance of PV installations.
The development of Poland’s solar market will allow for a constant level of employment to be maintained in the country over the next 15 years, according to new research.
A research team from the AGH University of Krakow utilized data from the Central Statistical Office of Poland and the Energy Transition Observatory to analyze the development of Poland’s PV industry between 2026 and 2040. The findings are available in the research paper On economic and environmental effects of expanding PV deployment in Poland, available in the journal Scientific Reports.
Corresponding author Łukasz Lach told pv magazine that the paper is the first attempt to assess quantitatively the size and development potential of the photovoltaic market in Poland under different installation capacities and market scenarios.
“Poland official strategic plans in the energy sector, including its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), lack any data on socio-economic effects of new energy-related investments. In the absence of such national indicators, some measures taken from studies on other countries are used in the NECP as a starting point for discussion on socio-economic effects of energy transition in Poland,” Lach said. “It is obvious, however, that relying on foreign-economies-based estimates is more like guessing than conducting meaningful analyses and leads to a situation where painting a full picture of energy transition in Poland based on official country’s NECP is almost impossible. The goal of the paper is to present a general method of solving this problem.”
The research paper covers three possible market scenarios over the next 15 years. The first, a baseline scenario, assumes further development of Poland’s solar industry based on currently existing legislative and market conditions. A second scenario, referred to PEP2040, is based on the legal and market conditions outlined in the Polish Energy Policy until 2040, while a third, referred to as the optimal scenario for the industry (OPT), assumes further development will take place at a pace optimal to the strategic considerations and growth of the solar industry’s actors.
Findings in the paper state that the total number of jobs will remain stable but at different levels depending on the scenario. “It may amount to approximately 20,000 for the baseline variant, to approximately 25,000 for PEP2040, and to between 35,000 and 40,000 for the OPT scenario” the research paper says. “This justifies the pursuit of the OPT scenario for the industry.”
Image: Lach et al
Lach explained that in the earlier years of the timespan, there are likely to be more jobs related to prosumer installations but the importance of large installations will grow over time. “In parallel, the number of permanent jobs related to the maintenance of the deployed infrastructure will be on the rise, which will compensate for the likely decline in construction-related jobs,” he said.
The research paper adds that employment projects often include jobs associated with induced effects but this analysis does not include them as such effects were not directly traceable given the current state of economic data on Poland. “It is worth mentioning that the literature estimates that the number of induced jobs may constitute from 33% to even 100% of jobs related to direct and indirect effects,” Lach explained. “In other words, induced effects related to the development of PV infrastructure may significantly add to the associated direct discussed above.”
Lach also noted that despite Poland’s ongoing energy transition, the number of coal-related jobs continues to be high as coal remains the largest source of electricity in the country. “The development of the PV industry in Poland provides obvious opportunities for laid-off coal workers,” he added.
When asked by pv magazine how he assesses the outlook for solar in Poland, Lach said the long-term potential remains strong due to high power prices, robust industrial demand for power purchase agreements and the need to reduce coal dependence.
But he warned that significant action is required to address key barriers such as curtailments, negative pricing and insufficient investment returns, adding that the most pressing challenge is the overloaded electricity grid which is causing delays and refusals for new project connections.
“Substantial investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure will also be essential to support further integration of renewable energy,” Lach explained. “Simply installing additional solar panels will no longer be sufficient; instead, the market must shift toward an integrated model that combines solar generation with energy storage, flexibility solutions and efficient local consumption to ease pressure on the grid.”
Poland’s cumulative solar capacity reached 24.8 GW by the end of last year, after the country added around 3.6 GW in 2025.
