By Jon Scheve, Superior Feed Ingredients, LLC
Corn
As I expected, the USDA increased the corn yield on Oct. 11. Based on conversations I continue to have with producers throughout the U.S., I still think the yield projection will increase in the November and January reports. I’m anticipating a final yield around 185.
The USDA also raised the corn export potential. If the USDA keeps increasing yields, it’s likely export potential will increase too.
The following chart outlines several different yield/export scenarios and how the carryout and stocks/use percentage would be impacted.
Based on my analysis, it seems likely the corn carryout will be near 1.9 billion. A carryout over 2 billion would likely push values well below $4 for a while. A 1.9 billion carryout probably prevents the market from trading to $3.50 but is probably not low enough to push values back to $4.50. That type of value would require a big export demand increase, most likely from a production issue in Argentina or Brazil over the next 6 months.… Continue reading
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